Cherokee County, GA – Housing Market Review

The most common questions I am asked are: Is the market getting any better and is activity picking up?

The problem in providing an answer is that is really depends on the day you ask.  Over the last 12 months, there really hasn’t been any consistent trend in the market.  Some weeks see lots of activity and interest while others have no activity.  It has been this lack of consistency that has made this such a difficult market. However, things are starting to change and trends are developing.

Positive News

Interest rates continue to be low (in the high 4%/low 5% range) and the $8000 federal tax credit for first time buyers and $1800 Georgia state tax credit for all buyers are good until the end of November.  In fact, houses are probably the most affordable they’ve ever been.  And, if you’re a home buyer, it’s still a buyer’s market.

On The Other Hand

National unemployment in about 10% and Georgia’s is slightly over 10%.  Job losses and uncertainty have undermined the confidence of home buyers.  In addition, while money is cheap, it is also still difficult to get a mortgage if your credit is not very good.

Market Analysis

To get a clear picture of the Cherokee market, I have broken down the sales trends for 2006 through 2008.  For 2009, I kept my original analysis period of January thru April  and have added May thru September.  This way you can see how the year is trending. The chart below for Cherokee County includes the cities of Woodstock,  Canton, Ball Ground, Holly Springs and Waleska.

EXPLANATION OF CHART

This chart shows the number of homes sold in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 (thru September).  2007 and 2008 are also broken down into Jan-July an Aug-Dec time frames.  The last column represent the the number of currently active listings and their average asking price.  The actual data for each bar and line is shown at the bottom of the chart.

Cherokee County House Market Analysis

ANALYSIS

Units Sold – 2006 – 2008

2006 saw 2967 homes sold with that number increasing to 3550 in 2007.  We know that that market slowdown began in summer of 2007.  This is clear by looking at the breakdown of 2007 sales: 2312 units from Jan-July and 1238 units from Aug-Dec.  Total units sold in 2008 declined to 2389 with the second half of the year seeing only 869 homes sold.

Units Sold – 2009

Thru April 30, 2009, 595 homes sold.  If we extrapolate this for the entire year, 2009 will see approximately 1800 homes sold.  From May thru September, 1150 homes sold with an average sales price of $213,000. While this period includes one more month than Jan thru April, the number of homes sold increased by over 93%!

There are currently 2318 homes on the market, down from 2726 at the end of April.  Current inventory now stands at 12 months versus 18.3 at the end of April. Clearly we are seeing a positive trend in sales with some discounting on price continuing. However, inventory is still above the 7-9 months which would represent a balanced market.  In addition, the current average list price of $327,000 for active listings is way too high and will need to come down in order to sustain this sales trend.

Average Sales Price

In 2006, the average sold price was $250,000.  This increased slightly to $253,000 in 2007, an increase of just  1.2%.  The average sold price peaked in the first half of 2007 at $256,000. By 2008, the average sold price was down to $232,000.  For the first four months of 2009, the average sold price was $219,000.  From May thru September, the average sales price declined by $6,000 or approximately 2.75%.

Average List Price

The average list price in 2006 was $255,000.  The difference between the average list and average sold in 2006 was 2.0%.  By 2007, the gap between list and sold price increased to 3.2%.  In 2008, the gap had further increased to 5.2%.  For the first four months of 2009, the gap reached 6.8%.  From May thru September, the price gap narrowed to 5.1%.

Average Days on Market

This data is not shown on the chart but in the table below:

2006: 77

Jan – Jul 2007: 83
Aug-Dec 2007: 88
2007: 85

Jan-Jul 2008: 102
Aug-Dec 2008: 92
2008: 98

Jan – April 2009: 94
May – Sept 2009: 95

As we can see, the average days on market has increased from to 77 to a current 95 days which is less than 2008’s average of 98 days.

Please feel free to contact me with questions about your specific market or community.  You can request a FREE home market analysis here.

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Cherokee County, Georgia Housing Market Review